COMMENTARY: ENERGY WATCH: Has Iran's Hormuz control slipped?
- Middle East oil exports smash through 18 million barrels per day mark.
- Producers are effectively ignoring Iranian tanker harassment to keep the taps open.
- Crude prices remain stubbornly locked above $100 despite increased supply.
- G7 emergency diesel release looks like a band-aid on a gaping refining wound.
Brief Summary
Oil markets are defying geopolitical gravity as exports from the Middle East surge past pre-war levels, suggesting that the industry has learned to live with Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this flow of crude, prices refuse to budge from their $100-plus perch, largely due to a global logistics and refining bottleneck that shows no signs of clearing.
Why This Matters
This is a direct hit to your wallet. While the headlines scream about supply, the reality is that the global refining system is broken, meaning there is not enough capacity to turn that crude oil into the diesel and gasoline you actually use. Releasing emergency reserves is a political parlor trick that won't fix the underlying lack of infrastructure. Expect to keep paying a premium at the pump because the bottleneck isn't getting fixed anytime soon, regardless of how much oil makes it through the Strait.