TotalEnergies flags quarterly profit surge as Iran war continues to drive energy prices
- Refining margin quadruples to $33.2/barrel—war is peace, and war is profit.
- LNG income surges as Hormuz closure chokes 20% of global supply.
- Cash flow from refining/chemicals doubles to ~$4B in Q3; shares up 45% YTD.
- TotalEnergies dodges full Iran fallout, trims upstream hit to 125k boed.
- Shell and BP join the party, tripling margins—misery loves wealthy company.
Brief Summary
TotalEnergies, the Gallic cash register, announced Thursday that Q3 profits will be fattened by a quadrupling of refining margins, thanks largely to the US-Israeli-Iranian cage match that has effectively padlocked the Strait of Hormuz. The company expects $33.2 per barrel refining margins, a jump from $13.5 in Q2 and a near quadrupling year-over-year—because nothing says 'peace dividend' like bombing a strait that carries the world's oil. LNG income also surged, with European gas prices leaping nearly 40% as Qatar and UAE supply got stuck in the crossfire—so much for energy independence, eh Brussels? TotalEnergies' downstream cash flow should double to about $4 billion, a figure that would make Scrooge McDuck blush, while hydrocarbon production ticks along at 2.5 million boed, down only 5% from war-related disruptions—apparently God favors the shareholders. With Shell and BP seeing similarly swollen margins, it's clear the real winner in the Middle East conflict isn't peace, it's the quarterly earnings call.
Why This Matters
For you, dear reader, this means higher prices at the pump and on your heating bill, all while oil giants flash their quarterly earnings like a Rolex at a soup kitchen. The Horniest of Hormuz being closed means winter energy prices will stay elevated, hitting your wallet precisely as the holidays arrive—ho ho ho, courtesy of TotalEnergies. On a political level, these war profits are a brutal reminder that Western energy policy is tethered to Middle East chaos; every missile strike translates into refiner margin candles on Big Oil's birthday cake. You can expect more pressure on governments to tax these windfalls, but don't hold your breath—politicians love blaming inflation while quietly enjoying the tax revenue from the boom. If you're invested in energy stocks, congratulations; it's a bull market on blood. If not, well, summer's gone, and the bill's due.